Randy McDonald ([info]rfmcdpei) wrote,
@ 2007-06-07 23:59:00
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Entry tags:clash of civilizations, eurasia, imperialism, nationalism, russia

[LINK] Kaletsky on an upcoming (?) Cold War
From Anatole Kaletsky's editorial in The Times, on what seems to be a breakdown in Western-Russian relations, "It’s the West that’s starting this new Cold War":

Casting Russia as the enemy suits everyone at this year’s summit. It distracts attention from President Bush’s contempt for Europeans on climate change and his geopolitical blunders. It helps Angela Merkel and Tony Blair to disguise the failure of their Atlanticist diplomacy while allowing Nicolas Sarkozy to sound tough, without being antiAmerican. It gives all the European leaders at the summit a chance to “show solidarity” with the EU’s newly admitted Eastern members without making any concessions on the discriminatory economic and labour policies that will keep these countries firmly in their place for decades ahead. And best of all, from every nation’s standpoint, the starring role of villain is one that President Putin himself craves.

Mr Putin faces a difficult transition from his present position as a wildly popular czarist-style absolute ruler to some kind of power behind the throne – a kingmaker or political puppeteer possibly modelled on Deng Xiaoping, of China, or Lee Kuan Yew, of Singapore, but with no real parallel in Russian history. In managing this unprecedented transition, nothing is more useful to Mr Putin than his image as the first national leader since Stalin who could stand up for Russia’s interests against an inherently hostile world. This is why all the EU’s complaints about neo-imperialist bullying of Poland and Estonia, all the lectures from President Bush about democracy and all the admonitions about human rights from Mrs Merkel are water off a duck’s back to President Putin.

[. . .]

While Westerners see Russian resentment about these territorial losses [of most of the western and southern tiers of the ex-USSR] as a throwback to 19th-century imperialist thinking, consider how the process might look when viewed from the Russian side. What Russians see is a powerful and wealthy empire expanding steadily on their Western border and swallowing all the intervening countries, first into the EU’s economic and political arrangements and then into the Nato military structure. Consider from the Russian standpoint the EU’s explicit vocation to keep growing until it embraces every European country with the sole exception of Russia itself, and the almost automatic Nato membership now granted to EU countries. Is it so very unreasonable to view this EU-Nato juggernaut as the world’s last remaining expansionist empire, or even the natural successor to previous German and French expansions that were considerably less benign?
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Thoughts, if any?


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(Anonymous)
2007-06-08 05:08 am UTC (link)
Consider from the Russian standpoint the EU’s explicit vocation to keep growing until it embraces every European country with the sole exception of Russia itself

Who said that Russia will be excluded from the EU?

Alexander

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[info]pompe
2007-06-08 09:09 am UTC (link)
Given the problem of getting Turkey in, I'd guess at least ten member nations. I honestly can't say if even my pro-expansion people would support Russian membership.

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(Anonymous)
2007-06-08 10:40 pm UTC (link)
Given the problem of getting Turkey in, I'd guess at least ten member nations. I honestly can't say if even my pro-expansion people would support Russian membership.

I don't think that's a good parallel at all. Russia's problems are political, not cultural. For example, a democratic Ukraine will be accepted without problems.

While Russia's huge size, and very primitive infrastructure will make it a harder country to swallow than Central/Eastern Europe, they aren't insurmountable assuming that the political authoritarianism weren't reasserting themselves.

Alexander

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[info]pompe
2007-06-08 11:37 pm UTC (link)
Trust me, there are many non-Russians around the Baltic who think Russia's problems, including the history of political authoritarianism, the primitive infrastructure and imperialist ambitions, _are_ cultural and endemic.

These people may well be wrong and driven by prejudices, military scare-stories, abysmal PR from Moscow, ancient historical hatred and a media which honestly don't portray Russia in a very positive light, but any non-German politician around the Baltic likely have to deal with it anyway.

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(Anonymous)
2007-06-09 04:04 am UTC (link)
My own family background means that I understand and share those suspicions of Russia. However, a Russia that *does* democratize, that does turn away from her historical autocracy and imperialism *will* overcome those suspicions. It might take Russia longer than, say Ukraine, to convince me that she's turned the corner, and it might take a Balt still longer, but it will happen.

Alexander

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[info]pompe
2007-06-09 01:03 pm UTC (link)
I'm inclined to agree with another poster that Russia may have squandered that opportunity. It seems as Russia is instead turning away from something else.

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(Anonymous)
2007-06-10 11:01 am UTC (link)
Oh, I'm not disputing *that*.

A Russia that embraces autocracy and imperialism under Putin has made a decision not to undertake the freemarket and democratic reforms needed to join the EU. It isn't the EU that has decided to exclude Russia.

FWIW, similar policies undertaken by any other Central or Eastern European country would also have led to their exclusion from the EU.

Alexander

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[info]anzhalyumitethe
2007-06-08 03:10 pm UTC (link)
Russia.

I have a half finished post about my disappointment with Russia squirreled inside my blog which maybe I'll finish today. Russia pissed away an opportunity: to join the EU and be a meaningful partner in a 'stable' system. In 30-50 years, Russia is going to be a shadow of itself demographically and its going to bite them in the @$$! Instead of working to join the EU and being a very important player there, they had to go strut themselves like they were the Soviet Union and this was the Cold War.

Stupid. So completely stupid.

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[info]locke_sheen
2007-07-26 10:14 pm UTC (link)
Russia would NEVER join the EU, and it most probably would be the right decision. On the other hand, the EU itself never wanted Russia to get it - not surprisingly! the EU is neither interested in an external border somewhere in Central Asia nor is it interested in exposing itself to tremendous migration flows taking place there. Finally, bordering China isn't a great thing either ;)

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[info]pompe
2007-06-08 09:04 am UTC (link)
Yes, it is unreasonable. The imperial parallel is weak. The EU grows by the voluntary and often complicated addition of new members, not by any sort of military conquest. It is perfectly possible to be a NATO member but not an EU member, and vice versa.

Also note that Mr. Kaletsky seems to have a certain problem with time and the automatic NATO membership for EU nations, which sort of undermines his esteemed reasoning. Several East European nations - Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania, were NATO members well before being EU members! Hell, Estonia was a NATO member before becoming an EU member! Just by a month, but still!

But I guess if EU _had_ to militarize, I know my bet on what belligerent neighbour we have to arm up against. Hint. Not Turkey.

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(Anonymous)
2007-06-16 05:35 pm UTC (link)
One would say that EU _has_ to militarize if its ever going to excert a geopolitical influence even a fraction that of its economic muscle. Or for that matter in order not to be dependent to the United States for ever and by extension unable to follow any foreign policy distinct and if neccesary opposing to that of the US should that be considered to be in the European interest.

As for what belligerent neighbour we as Europe might have to arm for sure an Estonian might answer Russia. In a similar way that a Greek would answer Turkey. Both are in no position to seriously threaten EU as a whole. Which doens't mean that they cannot be deemed a threat for some EU member states.

Demetrios

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(Anonymous)
2007-06-08 02:03 pm UTC (link)
A very thoughtful analysis Randy.

Jerry.

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[info]miteque
2007-06-08 03:20 pm UTC (link)
Kaletsky got it right. Here in Russia Western talk about 'neoimperial ambitions' looks almost as weird as modern Russia being called 'dominant ice hockey superpower'.

Although actually there's little if any negative public opinion about the EU in Russia. Priority targets for anti-Western sentiment are the U.S. and NATO. And speaking about Germany, in recent years it has constantly polled in top 3 of 'Russia's best friends' list along with Belarus and Kazakhstan.

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[info]timgueguen
2007-06-09 05:18 pm UTC (link)
Semi off topic question: Does anyone know why British publications present acronyms like NATO as Nato? I've seen that in New Statesman and (I'm pretty sure) The Economist.

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(Anonymous)
2007-06-10 11:04 am UTC (link)
For the same reason that we don't talk about SCUBA gear but scuba gear.

Alexander

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