Randy McDonald ([info]rfmcdpei) wrote,
@ 2007-10-18 23:59:00
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Entry tags:geopolitics, links, turkey

[LINK] Stratfor on Turkey
That agency's review is right here, with the conclusion excerpted below.

Since the end of the Cold War, Turkey's neighborhood -- and its relationship with Washington -- has drastically changed. Attempts to become a Central Asian or European power have failed, and the Turks are looking in different directions for opportunities. The Iraq war has proven that U.S. and Turkish security concerns are no longer in lockstep, leading Turkey to re-evaluate its alliance with the United States.

From the Turks' viewpoint, the United States can no longer be viewed as a stabilizing force, as it has been since World War II. Moreover, Turkey no longer is a weak economic force and is not as reliant on the United States for its security. Turkey's rapid economic growth and its strong military tradition are creating the conditions for Ankara to pull itself out of its post-World War I insularity and extend itself in the region once again. As a result, Turkey's foreign policy no longer needs to tie itself to the United States, and Ankara can afford to make bold moves concerning issues -- whether those issues relate to the Kurds, Armenians or Greeks -- without losing too much sleep over any follow-on damage to its relationship with the United States. If the United States is going to act as the destabilizing force in the region through creating a major upheaval in Iraq, Turkey must at the very least attempt to take control of the situations within its old sphere of influence.


Thoughts, if any?


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[info]dsgood
2007-10-19 04:49 am UTC (link)
It's quite possible that within a few years, Turkey would be less trusted in the Arab world and in Iran than Israel.

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[info]nhw
2007-10-19 06:50 am UTC (link)
I found the piece a bit shallow, and, like all Stratfor pieces, written from a US pol-mil perspective which believes that geography is really the only thing that matters and that countries behave as monolithic actors. The interesting thing in Turkey is the dynamic between the 'deep state' and the government, the latter now newly re-elected with a mandate for reform and movement towards the EU (another thing that Stratfor prefers to pretend isn't happening). The issues of the Armenian genocide, and the Kurds in Iraq, are among the few where both sides in the intra-Turkish dispute are pulling in the same direction, and, mysteriously, the only ones reported by Stratfor - no mention here of the planned constitutional reform, the liberalisation of conditions for Kurds within Turkey as opposed to Iraq, or Cyprus. ICG's recent reports on Turkey and Kirkuk add a lot more context and colour.

On the Armenian genocide issue, while of course the historical facts are beyond doubt and the Turkish approach worse than counterproductive, I have to wonder whether passing judgements on historical events is really a good use of the House of Representatives' time. Some at least of the resolution's supporters are motivated not by any sympathy for the Armenians but more by a tactical desire to cause the Bush campaign in Iraq further trouble by increasing the chance of a Turkish military intervention. That seems criminally irresponsible to me.

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[info]rfmcdpei
2007-10-19 02:42 pm UTC (link)
Some at least of the resolution's supporters are motivated not by any sympathy for the Armenians but more by a tactical desire to cause the Bush campaign in Iraq further trouble by increasing the chance of a Turkish military intervention. That seems criminally irresponsible to me.

The cynic in me is inclined to wonder what hasn't been criminally irresponsible about the United States' Middle East policy over the last while. At worst, Democrats have been consistent.

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[info]optimussven
2007-10-19 04:51 pm UTC (link)
What bold moves towards Greece is he referring to, I wonder? Turko-Greek relations are at their absolute height.

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[info]inuitmonster
2007-10-19 07:32 pm UTC (link)
I remember deciding that the Stratfor people did not really know much about anything when reading their analysis of the Hezbollah-Israel war last year, which basically saw them continuously urging people to bet their shirt on Israel launching a major ground invasion of Lebanon.

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