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Saturday, December 24th, 2005
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12:10p - [BRIEF NOTE] The North American Prehistory of HIV
The June 2003 Journal of Virology paper "U.S. Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Epidemic: Date of Origin, Population History, and Characterization of Early Strains", by Robbins et al, provides an interesting examination of the prehistory of HIV in North America. The standard history of HIV in North America usually begins with the first diagnoses of AIDS in 1981, sometimes with the first retrospective confirmations of HIV seropositivity in 1977-8, occasionally even further back than that to children born with AIDS (the earliest, one born with AIDS in 1973-74). Robbins et al. demonstrate, by taking very early samples of HIV and measuring the rate of the viruses' evolution from a hypothetical ur-virus, that HIV was likely introduced to North America some time in the late 1960s. Hooper in The River (chapters 3 through 9, 32), cited in the paper, details some superficially convincing early cases of HIV/AIDS. From such a small singular event, given a decade's growth unnoticed the seeds of great tragedies were sown.
current mood: informed (2 comments |comment on this)
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7:48p - [BRIEF NOTE] A most excellent gift
I'll just take the time now to thank ![[info]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif) finfin for his kind gift of Ideas: Brilliant Thinkers Speak Their Minds (Fredericton NB: Goose Lane, 2005; edited by Bernie Lucht). This book is a collection of talks and interviews given by brilliant thinkers on the CBC Radio program Ideas, from Hannah Arendt and Northrop Frye to Margaret MacMillan and George Monbiot. I'm rather excited by this gift, as a point of fact.
current mood: Madonna, "Hung Up" (comment on this)
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8:17p - [LINK] Is this how space will get settled?
After kindly linking to part 8 of my ongoing series on space colonization, Jay Manifold (at A Voyage to Arcturus) kindly pointed his readers in the direction of Frederick Turner's July 1996 Reason article "Worlds Without Ends". After noting the ongoing shift of the most developed world economies away from labour-intensive extractive and manufacturing industries into highly-skilled service jobs, Turner argues that space colonization would take place as a byproduct of a highly futuristic adventure tourism, as the wealthy of Earth explore the Solar System and, in so doing, attract capital into the great beyond. This seems a plausible scenario, but two objections present themselves:
1. How much will it cost to go to Mars for a wealthy mid-21st century billionaire? Space travel is expensive, the costs growing seemingly almost proportionally to the distance from Earth. Can even these people afford it?
2. Will the technologies necessary for long-range flight be publicly available? After September 11th, any technology that can accelerate objects to speeds measures in kilometres per second is bound to be suspect.
3. Will virtual space tourism undermine the market for interplanetary manned tourism? Even with a time lag, virtual reality is a much cheaper way to experience Mars than sending a Mars Express mission.
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8:53p - [BLOG-LIKE POSTING] Moldova's Human Exports
One nice side-effect of the Liquor Control Board of Ontario's monopoly over the sale of alcoholic beverages in the entire province of Ontario is that its captive market of 12.5 million people makes it one of the largest purchasers of alcoholic beverages in the world. It's this size that makes it possible for Ontarian consumers to enjoy relatively rare beverages, like 2003 Corten Merlot from the Cahul Region of southern Moldova that I bought last Monday. I like buying foreign wines, particularly inexpensive wines from regions on the verge of some sort of First World status. Consider it my effort to encourage convergence.
Moldova, as it happens, shares with Georgia a long tradition of wine-growing, something that ensured Moldova a prestigious position in the domestic wine supplies of the former Soviet Union. Unfortunately, Moldova also shares with Georgia--and the whole of the South Caucasus--a post-Soviet history marked not only by the complete breakdown of the prior integrated Soviet economy, but also by the sort of pervasive degeneration that hits small peripheral territories when they're abruptly cut off from the centre. The quality of the peace enjoyed in Moldova with the secessionist, Russophone, and quasi-Stalinist district of Transnistria, as cited by Joel at Far Outliers, is further exactly the wrong sort of peace, without any conflict or substantive pressure to force a resolution of the situation. It's not surprising that, as I wrote last November in a post examining the unlikeliness of Moldova joining Romania, that Moldova's serious existential crises are propelling it in bad directions for its future.
This isn't likely, though, simply because the Moldovan state has acquired despite itself an innate inertia of its own, with mass emigration sapping its work force and its energies, the ethnic conflict dominating its conservative post-Communist political elites’ focus, and little incentive for innovation on any front. Moldova, once a prosperous component of the Soviet Union, is now the poorest country in Europe. Moldova's now of note as a source of sex slaves and organ sellers, which makes the prospect of Romanian and/or European Union expansion all the more difficult.
And why not? Moldova is poor, Moldova is rural, and Moldova's prospects are blocked. Why wouldn't Moldovans emigrate massively? Neighbouring Romania is a considerably wealthier country with more prospects than Moldova, but its post-Communist demographic history has been marked by massive emigration, with (for instance) one million Romanians living in Italy. Why wouldn't mass emigration be a perfectly rational solution for Moldovans tired of their poverty? Moldova's work force might be depleted, true, but the Moldovans abroad enjoy higher living standards while the Moldovans remaining behind benefit from the fact that their country stands just behind Tonga in the percentage of its GDP derived from remittances, in Moldova's case by the million or so people scattered across the Russian Federation, Romania, Turkey, and southern Europe.
This sort of mass emigration isn't going to help Moldova develop securely, though. It will help Moldova become a depopulated periphery, true, with its potential work force gone off to work in larger and wealthier countries, leaving the old behind to tend the country through its collapse, but it won't help Moldova grow. That's why Moldova needs to develop export goods apart from its population, like its wines: The 2003 Corten Merlot was a good one.
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8:54p - [NON BLOG] Holiday Wishes
I'd like to wish everyone a happy holiday season. Whether you celebrate Christmas, Hanukkah, or something else, may your festive season be happy and bright.
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