August 7th, 2010

forums, me, non blog

[FORUM] Are we safe from nuclear war?

Today's the 65th anniversary of the nuclear bombing of Hiroshima; and amazingly, the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were the only ones ever used in war. It's a minor miracle, considering the obscene overdevelopment of the Cold War arsenals, based as they must have been on the obvious truisms of the need for New Zealand and Charlottetown to die in a general conflagration. Many countries have given up nuclear weapons of their own will; many countries have decided to abandon their programs; nearly every state actor supports the idea of further cut-backs in the arsenals, with the idea of unilateral disarmament being raised (I've heard it particularly in the United Kingdom in relations to the Trident submarine leg of the arsenal).

Will this continue? I wonder. If, at some point, nuclear weapons stop being seen as "harbingers of the apocalypse" and start being seen as "really large bombs," then, along with the cutback in arsenals to manageable numbers and the growth of workable an ti-missile systems, nuclear war in--say--2030 might be plausible in a way that it simply wasn't in 1980, all things being equal.