Randy McDonald (rfmcdpei) wrote,
Randy McDonald

[BRIEF NOTE] Turkish Prospects

In the issue of the 25th of June 2005, the Economist features a survey ("The EU's Eastern Borders") of the eastern periphery of the European Union. An interesting article examining Turkey's economic prospects, "The 4% Solution," appears on page 14 of this survey. The article is centered around a Deutsche Bank study which claims that a Turkey properly embedded in the European Union could experience more than twice as much GDP growth per annum than a Turkey allowed to drift into the Middle East torn by conflict between religious and secular Turks (4.1% per annum versus 1.9%, respectively). The former Turkey would be about as wealthy in 2020, measured by GDP per capita at PPP, as Poland now in 2005; the underachieving Turkey would be about as prosperous as Bulgaria. The article concludes by referring to the claims of Daniel Gros, at the Centre for European Policy Studies, that if everything goes right for Turkey it could experience 3 to 6% more GDP growth per annum than western Europe and 1 to 3% more than central Europe.

These conclusions aren't very surprising, since by all accounts the demands imposed by the European Union are the perfect ways to ensure a country's successful growth, focusing on the political and social aspects of a country at least as much as the economic. If one follows the arguments of Refik Erzan, Umut Kuzubas and Nilufer Yildiz in their paper "Growth and Immigration Scenarios for Turkey and the EU" (PDF format), written for the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Turkey successfully rooted in the European Union would produce fewer migrants than a Turkey given the "special partnership" preferred by Germany's CDU. (It's a minor irony that the CDU would seem to prefer keeping Turkey outside, among other reasons, to prevent an influx of Turkish immigrants).
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